Markets, the whole economy, banks and investing. Questions test definitions, cause and effect, and quick calculations you can do in your head.
Microeconomics1
Core ideas
- Scarcity:
- resources are limited but wants are not, so every choice gives something up.
- Opportunity cost:
- the value of the next best alternative given up. An evening spent studying instead of working a $100 shift costs $100.
- Marginal analysis:
- compare the extra benefit of one more unit with its extra cost. Keep going while marginal benefit is at least marginal cost.
- Sunk cost:
- money already spent that can't be recovered. It shouldn't affect the next decision.
- Comparative advantage:
- producing something at a lower opportunity cost than others. Trade based on it helps both sides, even when one side has the absolute advantage (can produce more of everything).
Supply and demand
- Law of demand: when the price rises, the quantity demanded falls. Law of supply: when the price rises, the quantity supplied rises.
- Equilibrium is where supply equals demand. Above it, a surplus pushes the price down. Below it, a shortage pushes the price up.
- Movement vs shift: a change in the good's own price moves along the curve (a change in quantity demanded). Anything else shifts the whole curve (a change in demand).
- Demand shifters: income, tastes, prices of related goods, expectations, number of buyers. Supply shifters: input costs, technology, taxes and subsidies, expectations, number of sellers.
- A normal good sells more when incomes rise. An inferior good (instant noodles, bus rides) sells less.
- Substitutes (coffee and tea): if one gets pricier, demand for the other rises. Complements (printers and ink): if one gets pricier, demand for the other falls.
- A price ceiling below equilibrium (rent control) causes a shortage. A price floor above it (minimum wage) causes a surplus. A ceiling above equilibrium, or a floor below it, does nothing.
| Shift | Price | Quantity |
| Demand rises | up | up |
| Demand falls | down | down |
| Supply rises | down | up |
| Supply falls | up | down |
Demand \(Q_d=100-2P\), supply \(Q_s=20+2P\). Find the equilibrium.
- \(100-2P=20+2P\), so \(4P=80\).
- \(P=20\), and \(Q=100-40\).
\(P=20\), \(Q=60\)
Elasticity
- Elastic (\(|E_d|>1\)): buyers react strongly. Goods with many substitutes, luxuries, and big purchases. Inelastic (\(|E_d|<1\)): necessities with few substitutes, like gasoline or insulin.
- Total revenue test: if demand is elastic, cutting the price raises revenue. If it's inelastic, raising the price raises revenue. Revenue peaks where \(|E_d|=1\).
- Income elasticity is positive for normal goods (above 1 for luxuries) and negative for inferior goods.
- Cross elasticity is positive for substitutes and negative for complements.
- Tax incidence: whichever side of the market is less elastic pays more of a tax, no matter who it's collected from.
A price rises from $10 to $12 and the quantity sold falls from 100 to 90. Is demand elastic, and what happens to revenue?
- \(\%\Delta Q=-10\%\), \(\%\Delta P=+20\%\), so \(E_d=-0.5\): inelastic.
- Revenue: \(10\times100=1000\) becomes \(12\times90=1080\).
Inelastic. Revenue rises by $80.
Surplus and efficiency
- Consumer surplus:
- what buyers were willing to pay minus what they paid. The area under the demand curve and above the price.
- Producer surplus:
- the price sellers get minus the lowest price they'd accept. The area above the supply curve and below the price.
- Total surplus:
- consumer plus producer surplus. A competitive market at equilibrium makes it as large as possible.
- Deadweight loss:
- total surplus lost when a tax, price control, monopoly or externality pushes quantity away from the efficient level.
- A tax drives a wedge between what buyers pay and what sellers keep. Fewer trades happen, creating deadweight loss.
With demand \(Q_d=100-2P\) and a market price of $20, what is consumer surplus?
- Nobody buys at \(P=50\) (set \(Q_d=0\)). At \(P=20\), \(Q=60\).
- The surplus is a triangle: \(\tfrac12\times60\times(50-20)\).
$900
Costs of production
- Fixed cost:
- doesn't change with output, like rent.
- Variable cost:
- rises with output, like materials.
- Short run:
- at least one input is fixed. Long run: every input can change.
- Diminishing marginal returns:
- adding more of one input to fixed inputs eventually adds less and less output.
- Economic profit:
- revenue minus explicit and implicit (opportunity) costs. Accounting profit subtracts explicit costs only. Zero economic profit (normal profit) still covers the owner's opportunity cost.
- Economies of scale:
- long-run average cost falls as output grows. With diseconomies of scale, it rises.
- Marginal cost crosses average total cost and average variable cost at their lowest points.
Market structures
| Structure | Firms | Product | Entry | Price power |
| Perfect competition | many | identical | free | none (price taker) |
| Monopolistic competition | many | differentiated | easy | some |
| Oligopoly | a few | identical or differentiated | hard | a lot, but firms react to each other |
| Monopoly | one | no close substitutes | blocked | price maker |
- Firms maximize profit where marginal revenue = marginal cost. In perfect competition, \(P=MR=MC\). In the long run, entry and exit push price to the minimum of \(ATC\), so economic profit is zero.
- Shutdown rule: in the short run, stop producing if \(P\) is below minimum \(AVC\). In the long run, leave the industry if \(P\) is below minimum \(ATC\).
- A monopoly's \(MR\) is below its price, because selling one more unit means lowering the price on every unit. It produces less and charges more than a competitive market (\(P>MC\)), causing deadweight loss.
- A natural monopoly (a water utility) can serve the whole market more cheaply than several firms could. Price discrimination charges different buyers different prices for the same good, like student discounts.
- Dominant strategy:
- the best move no matter what the other player does.
- Nash equilibrium:
- no player can do better by changing strategy alone.
- Prisoner's dilemma:
- each player's dominant strategy (cheat) leaves both worse off than if they'd cooperated. It's why cartel members are tempted to break agreed output limits.
A competitive firm faces a price of $8. Its minimum average variable cost is $6 and its minimum average total cost is $10. What should it do?
- \(P<ATC\), so it's losing money.
- \(P>AVC\), so producing covers its variable costs and part of its fixed costs. Shutting down would lose all the fixed costs.
Keep producing in the short run, leave in the long run.
Market failures
- Externality:
- a cost or benefit that falls on people outside the trade. With a negative one (pollution), the market produces too much. With a positive one (vaccines, education), too little.
- Pigouvian tax:
- a tax equal to the external cost, so producers pay the full social cost. A subsidy does the same for a positive externality.
- Coase theorem:
- if property rights are clear and bargaining is cheap, the people involved can fix an externality themselves.
- Free rider:
- someone who benefits without paying. This is why markets underprovide public goods.
- Tragedy of the commons:
- a shared resource gets overused because nobody owns it, like overfishing.
- Asymmetric information:
- one side knows more. Adverse selection happens before the deal (the used-car "lemons" problem). Moral hazard happens after it (insured people take more risks).
| Type of good | Rival? | Excludable? | Example |
| Private | yes | yes | a sandwich |
| Club | no | yes | a streaming service |
| Common resource | yes | no | ocean fish |
| Public | no | no | national defense, street lights |
Macroeconomics1
Measuring output
- GDP:
- the market value of all final goods and services produced inside a country in a period.
- Left out of GDP:
- intermediate goods (they'd be counted twice), used goods, buying stocks or bonds, transfer payments like pensions, unpaid housework, and the underground economy.
- GNP:
- output by a country's residents and firms, wherever in the world it's produced.
- Nominal vs real GDP:
- nominal uses current prices. Real GDP uses base-year prices, so it only grows when output grows.
- GDP per capita:
- GDP divided by population. A rough measure of living standards.
- In GDP, investment (\(I\)) means new equipment, buildings, housing and inventories, not buying shares. Government spending (\(G\)) leaves out transfer payments.
Nominal GDP is $1,100 billion and the GDP deflator is 110. What is real GDP?
- Real GDP \(=\dfrac{\text{nominal}}{\text{deflator}}\times100=\dfrac{1100}{110}\times100\).
$1,000 billion
Inflation
- Inflation:
- a sustained rise in the overall price level. Deflation is a falling price level. Disinflation is inflation slowing down but still positive.
- CPI:
- the Consumer Price Index tracks the cost of a fixed basket of goods a typical household buys. The base year is 100.
- Core inflation:
- inflation without food and energy prices, which jump around.
- Demand-pull vs cost-push:
- demand-pull is too much spending chasing too few goods. Cost-push comes from rising input costs, like oil.
- Surprise inflation hurts lenders, savers and people on fixed incomes. It helps borrowers with fixed-rate loans, who repay in cheaper money.
- The CPI tends to overstate inflation: people switch to cheaper goods, and quality improvements look like price rises.
A savings account pays 5% and inflation is 3%. What is the real return?
- \(r\approx5\%-3\%\).
About 2%
Unemployment
- Labor force:
- people who are employed plus people who are unemployed and actively looking. Retirees, full-time students and discouraged workers (who stopped looking) aren't in it.
- Frictional:
- between jobs or just starting out. Structural: skills or location don't match the jobs available. Cyclical: caused by a recession.
- Natural rate:
- frictional plus structural unemployment. "Full employment" means unemployment is at this rate, not at zero.
190 million people are employed, 10 million are unemployed and 60 million are not in the labor force. What is the unemployment rate?
- Labor force \(=190+10=200\) million. The 60 million don't count.
- \(10\div200\).
5%
Aggregate demand and supply
- Aggregate demand slopes down: a lower price level makes people's money worth more (wealth effect), lowers interest rates, and makes exports cheaper.
- Short-run aggregate supply slopes up because some wages and prices are slow to change. Long-run aggregate supply is vertical at potential GDP, which depends on resources and technology, not prices.
- A recessionary gap is output below potential. An inflationary gap is output above it.
- Stagflation is rising prices and falling output together, usually from a supply shock like the 1970s oil crises.
| Shock | Price level | Real GDP |
| Aggregate demand rises | up | up |
| Aggregate demand falls | down | down |
| Short-run supply falls (oil shock) | up | down |
| Short-run supply rises | down | up |
Business cycles and growth
- The four phases of a business cycle are expansion, peak, contraction (recession) and trough.
- A common rule of thumb calls two quarters in a row of falling real GDP a recession. In the US, the NBER officially dates them using wider data such as jobs and income.
- Leading indicators (stock prices, building permits) move before the economy does. Lagging indicators (the unemployment rate) move after.
- Long-run growth comes from more physical capital, more human capital (education and skills), better technology, and institutions like property rights. Productivity, meaning output per hour worked, drives living standards.
Real GDP per person grows 2% a year. About how long until it doubles?
- \(70\div2\).
About 35 years
Fiscal and monetary policy
- Fiscal policy uses government spending and taxes. Monetary policy uses interest rates and the money supply.
- Expansionary policy (more spending, tax cuts, lower rates) fights recessions. Contractionary policy (the opposite) fights inflation.
- Automatic stabilizers, like unemployment insurance and progressive taxes, push against the cycle without any new law.
- Crowding out: heavy government borrowing can raise interest rates and reduce private investment.
- A budget deficit is one year's spending above revenue. The national debt is the total of past deficits minus surpluses.
- The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices. It aims for 2% inflation over the long run.2
- The short-run Phillips curve shows a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. In the long run it's vertical at the natural rate, so there's no lasting trade-off.
MPC is 0.8. By how much can $10 billion of new government spending raise GDP?
- Multiplier \(=\tfrac{1}{1-0.8}=5\).
- \(5\times 10\).
$50 billion (in the simple model)
Trade and exchange rates
- Trade balance:
- exports minus imports. A trade deficit means a country imports more than it exports.
- Balance of payments:
- a country's record of transactions with the rest of the world. The current account (trade, investment income, transfers) and the financial account (buying and selling assets) roughly cancel out. A current account deficit is paid for by foreigners buying domestic assets.
- Appreciation:
- a currency buys more foreign currency than before. Exports get pricier abroad and imports get cheaper. Depreciation is the opposite.
- Floating vs fixed:
- a floating exchange rate is set by the market. A fixed (pegged) rate is held by the central bank.
- Purchasing power parity:
- in the long run, exchange rates tend to move until the same basket costs the same everywhere.
- Tariff:
- a tax on imports. A quota limits the quantity imported.
The exchange rate moves from 1 USD = 1.30 CAD to 1 USD = 1.40 CAD. Which currency appreciated, and what does a 130 CAD jacket now cost in USD?
- Each US dollar buys more Canadian dollars, so the USD appreciated.
- Before: \(130\div1.30=100\). After: \(130\div1.40\approx92.86\).
The USD. The jacket drops from $100 to about $92.86.
Banking1,2
Money
- Functions of money:
- a medium of exchange, a unit of account and a store of value.
- M1:
- cash in circulation plus checking deposits (and, since 2020 in the US, savings deposits). M2 adds small time deposits and retail money market funds.
- Liquidity:
- how quickly something can be turned into cash without losing value. Cash is the most liquid asset. A house is illiquid.
How banks work
- Fractional reserve banking: banks lend out most deposits. Each loan ends up deposited at another bank, which lends part of it again, so lending creates money.
- The simple money multiplier is \(\tfrac{1}{\text{reserve ratio}}\). In practice money grows less, because banks keep extra reserves and people hold cash.
- A bank balance sheet: assets = liabilities + equity. Loans, reserves and bonds are the bank's assets. Deposits and borrowed money are its liabilities.
- Banks earn the gap between the interest on loans and the interest paid on deposits, called the net interest margin.
- Maturity mismatch: banks borrow short (deposits can leave any day) and lend long (30-year mortgages).
- Commercial banks take deposits and make loans. Investment banks help companies issue stocks and bonds, advise on mergers and trade securities. Credit unions are owned by their members.
- Bank capital:
- the equity cushion that absorbs losses. Under Basel III, banks must hold common equity of at least 4.5% of risk-weighted assets, or 7% with the required conservation buffer.5
- Insolvent vs illiquid:
- an insolvent bank's assets are worth less than its liabilities. An illiquid bank is solvent but can't raise cash fast enough.
- Bank run:
- many depositors pull money out at once for fear the bank will fail. Loans can't be sold quickly, so even a healthy bank can fall. Silicon Valley Bank failed after a run in March 2023.
- Leverage:
- assets divided by equity. The higher it is, the smaller the loss that wipes out the bank's equity.
A bank has $100 million in assets and $92 million in liabilities. Then $10 million of its loans go bad. Is it still solvent?
- Equity \(=100-92=8\) million.
- After the loss: assets \(=90\), so equity \(=90-92=-2\) million.
No. Its equity is −$2 million, so it's insolvent.
Central banks
- Central bank tools (the US Federal Reserve): open market operations, the policy rate target, and interest on reserve balances. The Fed cut reserve requirements to 0% in March 2020.2
- Open market operations: buying government bonds adds reserves and pushes interest rates down. Selling them does the opposite.
- The federal funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. The Fed sets a target range, and changes flow through to mortgage, car-loan and savings rates.
- As lender of last resort, a central bank lends to banks in trouble, in the US through the discount window.
- Quantitative easing: large purchases of longer-term bonds when short-term rates are already near zero.
- FDIC deposit insurance covers $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, per ownership category.2 It stops most runs before they start.
Interest and loans
- APR vs APY:
- APR is the yearly rate without compounding. APY includes compounding, so it's higher whenever interest compounds more than once a year.
- Amortization:
- each fixed loan payment covers that period's interest first, and the rest pays down the principal. Early payments are mostly interest, later ones mostly principal.
- Secured vs unsecured:
- a secured loan is backed by collateral (a mortgage, a car loan). An unsecured loan (a credit card) isn't, so it charges more.
- Fixed vs variable rate:
- a fixed rate stays the same for the whole loan. A variable rate follows a benchmark rate.
- Credit risk:
- the chance a borrower won't repay (defaults). Riskier borrowers pay higher rates, and a credit score sums up a borrower's history.
$1000 at 10% a year for 2 years: compound against simple?
- Compound: \(1000\times1.1^2=1210\).
- Simple: \(1000\times(1+0.2)=1200\).
$1210 against $1200
A $200,000 mortgage charges 6% a year, paid monthly. How much of the first payment is interest?
- Monthly rate \(=6\%\div12=0.5\%\).
- \(200{,}000\times0.005\).
$1,000
Trading and investing3,4
Stocks
- Stock:
- a share of ownership (equity) in a company. Common stock usually votes. Preferred stock usually doesn't, but its dividends are paid first.
- Market capitalization:
- share price times shares outstanding. The market's value of the whole company.
- IPO:
- a company's first sale of shares to the public. New shares are sold in the primary market. Investors then trade them with each other in the secondary market, on exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq.
- Dividend:
- a share of profits paid to shareholders. You must own the stock before the ex-dividend date to get the next one.
- Stock split:
- more shares at a lower price, same total value. After a 2-for-1 split, one $100 share becomes two $50 shares.
- Buyback:
- a company buys its own shares, so fewer are outstanding.
A $50 stock earns $2.50 per share. What is its P/E?
- \(50\div2.5\).
20
You buy a stock at $40, collect a $1 dividend and sell at $44. What is your total return?
- Gain \(=44-40+1=5\).
- \(5\div40\).
12.5%
Bonds
- Bond:
- a loan to a government or company (debt). The face value (often $1,000) is repaid at maturity. The coupon rate sets the yearly interest as a percentage of face value.
- Yield to maturity:
- the yearly return if you buy at today's price and hold until maturity.
- Premium vs discount:
- a bond trades above face value when its coupon beats current rates, and below face value when it doesn't.
- Zero-coupon bond:
- pays no coupons. It's sold below face value and pays the full face value at maturity.
- US Treasuries:
- bills mature within a year, notes in 2 to 10 years, bonds in 20 or 30 years.
- Credit rating:
- BBB− (or Baa3) and above is investment grade. Below that is high yield ("junk"), which pays more for its higher risk of default.
- Yield curve:
- yields plotted by maturity. It usually slopes up. An inverted curve, with short rates above long rates, has often come before recessions.
- When interest rates rise, existing bond prices fall. Longer bonds fall more.
A bond with $1,000 face value and a 5% coupon trades at $800. What is its current yield?
- Coupon \(=5\%\times1000=50\) a year.
- \(50\div800\).
6.25%, above the coupon rate because the bond trades at a discount
Orders and markets
- A market order fills right away at the best available price. A limit order fills only at your price or better. A stop order becomes a market order once the price hits your stop, often to limit losses (a stop-loss).
- The bid-ask spread is the gap between the highest bid and the lowest ask. It's wider in thinly traded markets.
- Liquidity means you can trade quickly near the last price. Volume is how many shares trade in a period. Higher volume usually means tighter spreads.
- A bull market is a long rise. A bear market is a fall of 20% or more from a recent high. A correction is a drop of about 10%.
- Market indices: the S&P 500 tracks 500 large US companies, weighted by market cap. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks 30, weighted by share price. The Nasdaq Composite covers stocks listed on the Nasdaq and leans toward tech.
- An index fund or ETF copies an index cheaply. ETFs trade all day on an exchange. Mutual funds are priced once a day at their net asset value.
Options and futures
- Call option:
- the right to buy at the strike price before expiration. A put is the right to sell. The buyer pays a premium, which is the most they can lose.
- In the money:
- a call whose stock trades above the strike, or a put whose stock trades below it.
- American vs European:
- an American option can be used any time before expiration. A European one only at expiration.
- Futures:
- an obligation to buy or sell later at a set price. Futures are standardized, traded on exchanges and settled daily. Forwards are private, custom versions.
- Hedging vs speculating:
- hedging uses derivatives to cut risk, like a farmer selling wheat futures to lock in a price. Speculating bets on where prices will go.
You buy a call with a $50 strike for a $3 premium. At expiration the stock is $58. What is your profit per share?
- Payoff \(=58-50=8\).
- Profit \(=8-3\).
$5 per share
Risk, return and leverage
- Risk and return go together: higher expected returns come with more risk. Short-term government bills are treated as the risk-free rate.
- Volatility is how much returns swing, measured by standard deviation.
- Diversification reduces company-specific (unsystematic) risk, but not market-wide (systematic) risk.
- Beta measures how a stock moves with the market. \(\beta=1\) moves with it, \(\beta=1.5\) swings 50% more, and \(\beta<1\) swings less.
- Short selling: sell borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back cheaper. The possible loss has no limit, because the price can keep rising.
- Buying on margin means borrowing from your broker to buy more. Leverage magnifies gains and losses. If your equity falls too far, you get a margin call to add money.
The risk-free rate is 3%, the market is expected to return 8%, and a stock's beta is 1.2. What return does CAPM expect?
- Market risk premium \(=8-3=5\%\).
- \(3+1.2\times5\).
9%
You buy $10,000 of stock using $5,000 of your own money and a $5,000 margin loan. The stock falls 20%. How much of your own money did you lose (ignoring interest)?
- The stock is now worth \(8000\). After repaying 5000, you have 3000 left.
- You lost \(2000\) of \(5000\).
40%, twice the stock's drop